Army Corps of Engineers Publications

I heard a report* the other day on the news that referenced a new publication from the Army Corps of Engineers. If you can find a report on your topic, these are fantastic resources for academic references. But that’s sometimes easier said than done.

There are three places I would look immediately for these reports. The first is on the open web. Many of the individual Corps of Engineers districts have their own websites, with linked documents. This is relatively easy if the information you are seeking is geographically-specific, such as New Orleans or Portland, OR. Searching USA.gov has also been made easier by recent improvements.

For University of Richmond users, our subscription to the Homeland Security Digital Library (accessible either on-campus or by using VPN) allows us to search a number of these documents easily. I did an Advanced Search, using the words “Army Corps of Engineers” in the Publisher field, and found many interesting items.

Finally, for reports ABOUT the Corps of Engineers, it always pays to look at my favorite government research agency, the Congressional Research Service. Open CRS doesn’t allow for many tweaks to a search, so choose your search terms carefully.

*I believe it was this one: “Federal Reports Show Levee Safety Issues in Northwest”. NPR very helpfully links to the full list of USACE reports referenced in the story.

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2011 Hurricane Season Forecast

Just to prove my earlier post about forecasts growing longer, the 2011 Hurricane Season Forecast from the Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project is up, albeit with plenty of disclaimers: “We foresee an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2011 and anticipate an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. This early seasonal forecast has less skill than our forecasts issued closer to the start of the hurricane season. (as of 8 December 2010)”

I love the humility of this quote, which is on the front page of their report:

Arago’s Admonition:
“Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will honest scientific men who have regards for their reputations venture to predict the weather.”

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FluView

Great interactive visualization from the CDC, showing ILI reports to date. Click the individual state to be taken directly to the weekly flu report from that state’s Department of Health. Also, note the “Play” feature – this should get even more interesting as this season picks up speed.

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Improved Hurricane Forecasting

As the Hurricane Season of 2010 winds down, this item (from Wired Science) caught my eye:

Hurricane Forecasts can be made years in advance: “The parade of storms that pummels the western fringe of the North Atlantic every year just got a bit more predictable. Scientists say they have developed a way to forecast how many Atlantic hurricanes there will be — not just for the upcoming year, as some groups already do each spring, but for several years out.”

Currently, hurricane forecasts are issued annually by both NOAA and the Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project. NOAA’s Climate Predication Center has an excellent page detailing how they drew their conclusions, how the current predictions relate to other seasons, and Colorado State not only includes historical information, but now includes a “summary” of this past season.

The original article is published online in Nature Geoscience, although access to the full article is limited to subscribers. The conclusion: “Our results show that predictions of hurricane frequency are viable beyond the seasonal scale, and further elucidate causes of hurricane variability.”

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Definitions

I’ve got a ‘series’ on key journals in the field in my future, but while I was ruminating on that topic, I came across this resource, which I’d rather forgotten about:

Looking for a good definition of “Business Continuity” for your paper? What is the difference between an EOC and an ECC? What is a Drop Ship? This searchable, browsable glossary of brief, practitioner-focused definitions is a useful tool, especially in a field full of acronyms, initialisms and abbreviations.

Having said that, however, the list and definitions are not comprehensive. A great, under-utilized resource is the “Acronyms, Initialisms & Abbreviations Dictionary“, available to the U of R community through Boatwright Library. Oxford Reference also has a number of good definitions within the Oxford Reference Online suite of dictionaries, encyclopedias and handbooks. As an added bonus, these are scholarly and updated frequently.

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‘Tis the Season…

…for hurricane posts. The National Hurricane Study Program is a part of the “Comprehensive Hurricane Data Preparedness Study Web Site,” a joint effort of FEMA and the US Army Corps of Engineers.

The National Hurricane Study Program has been in existence for over 20 years and develops information for States and Counties to assist them in managing their resources to minimize the adverse effects resulting from hurricanes.

It’s an annoyingly “1.0″ website, with the only interactivity or action coming from a list of linked acronyms (no-one does them better – or worse – than the government) and a rotating Corps of Engineers castle. But the information linked under those acronyms is – where available – rich and useful. (There’s a huge number of ‘empty’ links for individual counties and areas, and the main website admits “it is far from complete”.) Everything from Post-Storm Assessmentsbehavioral data on hurricane evacuation studies, a limited number of hurricane evacuation studies (some very dated), and maps with “SLOSH” data (expectations for Sea, Lake and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) and evacuation routes and surge maps are available for certain locals.

Data from individual areas can also be found by using the “Other Links – State/County/City” link. This is where the website could really be useful. For Virginia, for example, the following information is available:

STATE: VA
—–Owner Type:——- State
Website: http://www.vdem.state.va.us/library/eopvol5/annexes/annexa/annexa2.pdf
Owner: Virginia
Descrition: Virginia Emergency Operations Plan, Hurricane Emergency Response
–HURREVAC AND DECISION ARCS
Website: http://www.hremc.org/surge.htm
Owner: HREMC
Descrition: Hampton Roads Emergency Management Committee – Assessing Vulnerability to
Hurricane Flooding
Website: www.vaemergency.com
Owner: Virginia
Descrition: Virginia Department of Emergency Management – The Virginia Department of
Emergency Management protects the lives and property of Virginia’s citizens from
emergencies and disasters by coordinating the state’s emergency preparedness,
mitigation, response and recovery efforts.
—–Owner Type:——- County
Website: http://www.yorkcounty.gov/fls/em/famprep.htm
Owner: York County, Virginia
Descrition: Family emergency preparedness
—–Owner Type:——- City
Website: http://hampton.gov/eoc/slosh.html
Owner: City of Hampton
Descrition: computerized model estimates the overland tidal surge heights and winds that
result from hypothetical hurricanes
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SERT GATOR

Florida’s State Emergency Response Team (SERT) has long been a leader in providing emergency and preparedness information to the public in innovate ways. They have a YouTube channel, extensive public readiness information on their main web page and a daily “Situation Report” page that gives information about the state’s Emergency Operations center readiness, as well as meteorological predictions (including space weather). But by far the most interesting and current use of their web tech-savvy is the Geospatial Assessment Tool for Operations and Response.

This interactive site, based on Google Earth images, gives users the ability to layer multiple types of information, including RECON Reports, weather forecasts, area contingency plans, tidal reports and more, and view them together. Satellite, street and nautical chart mapping are all options as well. The RECON reports include pictures where available. Here’s an example, from a “Priority” (Yellow) report from Escambia Perdido, near Pensecola. Fascinating and depressing, all at the same time.

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Learning from Catastrophes review

Kunreuther, Howard, and Michael Useem. Learning from catastrophes: strategies for reaction and response. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Wharton School Publishing, 2009. HD61 .L43 2010

In this wide-ranging volume of essays, Kunreuther and Useem have drawn together a number of important thinkers and practitioners in a variety of fields, all for the purpose of understanding what we already know about leadership in disaster and how we can apply that to mitigate future risk. “Thus, the focus of Learning from Catastrophes is on improving our ability to identify and manage events that are perceived to be highly unlikely, but which, if they do occur, can have catastrophic impact at both the national and global levels.” (p. xiii) The result is a holistic approach to emergency and risk management, with examples and application drawn from a wide range of experiences and events.

The genesis of this project began with a World Economic Forum Council on the Mitigation of Natural Disasters meeting in Dubai in the autumn of 2008. Kunreuther and Useem were the chairmen of this council, and their aim in this book is clear: to “…provide a useful set of principles for guiding decision making and leadership so essential for averting and overcoming those future risks that are sure to threaten yet again our global prosperity.” (p. xiv)

Aimed at leaders across the business, non-profit and public sector communities, this 268-page work encompasses topics as varied as risk analysis, investment for risk mitigation in poor countries, public planning for pandemic and cognitive constraints to preparedness. The overarching theme is that of leadership in the midst of a disaster, and the first and last chapters highlight this theme in detail. Contributors include professors (MIT, Wharton and the JFK School of Government at Harvard, among other institutions, are represented), professional researchers (World Meteorological Organization, Parmenides Center for the Study of Thinking) and business leaders (Freeplay Energy, Goldman Sachs). Authors from China, France, Canada and the United States mean that an international perspective is represented throughout.

For more information, see this review from Wharton Business School; you can also download a free chapter through their site. The publisher also has more information about the book, including the editor’s biographies and the table of contents, available here.

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US Fire Administration on Google

USFA Pubs on Google Books

Here’s an amazing find, thanks to those good folks at the US Fire Administration Library. 290 titles are included so far, with topics ranging from technical reports on investigations of specific fires, to public education, to training manuals for firefighters and educational material for administrators. Technical overviews, such as “Fire in the United States: 1986-1995“, transcripts from Congressional hearings and special reports and analysis are also included, making this resource indispensable for researchers. Like anything from Google, it’s easy to search, either within individual titles or the entire collection; someone has also very helpfully organized the titles into a few specific subjects, such as arson, fire prevention, etc.

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Hurricane Season Forecasts Roundup

I’ve blogged about this before - all the places where hurricane season forecasts can be found – but thought it bore updating, for this current season. Colorado State’s Tropical Meteorology Project produces the most up-to-date forecasts for the number of named storms per season. This year they’re predicting a doozy.

We foresee a very active hurricane season in 2010. We have increased our forecast from early April, due to a combination of a transition from El Niño to currently-observed neutral conditions and the continuation of unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. All factors are lining up for a very active 2010 hurricane season.
(as of 2 June 2010)

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